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 Scoring 0.2 of a political point 

Scoring 0.2 of a political point

8/10/2008 12:30:01 AM

THE last time the Reserve Bank dropped rates by 1 percentage point was in May 1992. The aim was to help the country emerge from a recession.

Yesterday's movement of 1 per centage point was to prevent it falling into one.

The size of the reduction caught everybody by surprise, but some more than others.

All the political posturing in recent days was based on the market-led assumption that the Reserve would drop rates by 0.50 percentage points, of which the banks would pass on only half.

Perhaps Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan, who are in daily contact with the Reserve, began to glean otherwise.

For more than a week they adopted the politically unpopular stance of advocating the banks pass on only what they could afford, not the full amount. When the banks' own borrowing costs cooled, they could pass on the rest.

Malcolm Turnbull leapt in, saying Rudd and Swan had no business defending the profits of the banks. The banks were still very profitable and if they decided they could not afford to pass on the full amount, they should explain why.

Thus the battle lines were drawn around the expectation that home owners and business operators could expect, at best, a 0.25 percentage point reduction.

After yesterday's shock decision, Turnbull still insisted the banks pass on the full amount. However, his argument became awkward because the size of the cut had given everybody a win - a bigger than expected decrease for home owners and business while allowing the banks to keep a little for themselves.

Westpac set the trend by slashing its home and business lending rates by 0.80 percentage points. Not the full percentage point as Turnbull demanded but more than three times what people were anticipating.

The governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens, implied that this win-win decision was his intent by describing the rate cut as "unusually large" but "appropriate in order to bring about a significant reduction in costs to borrowers".

It was also intended as a one-off: "The board does not, however, regard that movement as establishing a pattern for future decisions."

The size of the rate reduction created apprehension because of the level of concern it exposed within the Reserve.

Rudd and Swan were quick to assure it was the decisive action that was needed to help consumers while buttressing the banks and the economy.

They realise their pro-bank stance has been unpopular but believe that when the global financial storm has passed, they will be vindicated for having kept their heads.

Lose the battle but win the war, goes the theory.

Should, however, things turn pear-shaped, the Government could at least console itself with one small observation: interest rates are lower now under Labor than they were under the Coalition.

Since the last election, official and unofficial rate rises have totalled 1.05 percentage points while reductions have totalled 1.25 percentage points, a net decline of 0.2 percentage points.

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